New Zealand Confidence Shaken by Middle East Oil Shock

Articles · 6

• Forexlive6/11/2026, 10:40:17 PM
  NZ manufacturing PMI dips to 49.9 as Mideast conflict bites. Fuel costs, demand weigh.

  New Zealand's BNZ-BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in May from 50.4 in April, returning to contraction territory and falling well below the long-term average of 52.5. Weak customer demand, elevated fuel costs, and Middle East conflict were cited as key drags, with micro-firms (sub-index 46.0) underperforming large firms (57.6). BNZ's Stephen Toplis expects a flat winter for the sector but anticipates broader economic momentum to recover later in the year.

  Sentiment -0.30Sim 90%
• Forexlive5/29/2026, 1:29:58 AM
  NZ business confidence bounces in May but Middle East cost squeeze persists

  New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose 21 points to +10 in May, recovering from -10.6 in April, but remaining well below pre-Middle East conflict levels. Cost expectations held near record highs at 90.4% of firms reporting higher costs, with retail and construction activity still contracting. The RBNZ's policy path is complicated by persistent cost pressures even as inflation expectations eased marginally to 3.63%.

  Sentiment 0.00Sim 94%
• Forexlive5/28/2026, 10:16:53 PM
  NZ consumer confidence lifts off lows but remains well below January peak

  New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose 6 points to 86.5 in May, partially recovering from April lows but remaining 21 points below its January peak. The bounce is attributed largely to a small easing in petrol prices, while current conditions remain very soft at 77.2. Two-year CPI inflation expectations fell sharply from a record 6.6% to 5.3%, and ANZ Research expects the RBNZ to move the Official Cash Rate back toward a neutral 3% starting in July.

  Sentiment -0.10Sim 90%
• Forexlive5/14/2026, 10:36:06 PM
  New Zealand manufacturing expansion slows sharply in April, PMI data shows

  New Zealand's BNZ/BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March, its weakest reading in several months and below the long-term average of 52.5. New orders (48.2) and raw material deliveries (46.5) both contracted, with nearly 64% of respondents citing negative business influences including freight disruptions and fuel cost increases linked to the Iran conflict. BNZ's head of research flagged April as a potential turning point after earlier resilience, raising concerns about a shift toward outright contraction in coming months.

  Sentiment -0.30Sim 91%
• Forexlive4/30/2026, 10:09:24 PM
  NZ consumer confidence hits three-year low as Middle East oil shock bites

  New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index fell 11 points in April to 80.3, a three-year low, having dropped 20 points over two months as a Middle East-driven oil shock pushed petrol prices ~30% higher year-on-year. Two-year inflation expectations surged 0.9 percentage points to 6.6%, while perceptions of personal financial situations hit their weakest level since mid-2008. The deterioration raises the stakes for the RBNZ, which faces a widening gap between consumer inflation expectations and firm-level wage growth forecasts of 2.5%, complicating the OCR outlook.

  Sentiment -0.55Sim 95%
• Forexlive4/30/2026, 1:19:56 AM
  NZ business confidence crashes to -10.6 in April as cost shock rattles outlook - more

  New Zealand's ANZ business confidence index collapsed 43 points from +32.5 in March to -10.6 in April, driven by a surge in cost expectations to a three-year high of 4.57% and one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.81%, both above the RBNZ's 1–3% target band. Own activity outlook halved, profit expectations swung sharply negative, and employment intentions turned negative for the first time since mid-2024. Wage expectations eased slightly to 2.53%, offering the RBNZ limited reassurance against a backdrop of stagflationary pressure as it holds the OCR at 3.25%.

  Sentiment -0.55Sim 92%